Phillies Predictions Sure To Go Wrong

The Phillies have four really good starting pitchers. We, along with every analyst, writer and baseball fan across America, know this. There is little doubt, minus unforeseen injuries, that those four pitchers will dominate the competition this year. All of them could win 15+ games (assuming good run support, which I'll get to later) and should be good for 200+ innings. Halladay and Lee, who were #1 and #2 in innings per start last year, are two of MLB's true workhorses and very well could finish #1 and #2 in NL Cy Young voting this year. I mean when Joe Blanton is your #5 starter, you don't have much to worry about when it comes to pitching.

However, this team still has some major questions. Utley's health aside (which everyone knows is a big deal), this team has questions in the bullpen, outfield and on the bench. 100 wins, which three months ago looked like easy money, is probably the max this team can do. In fact, I'm saying they win 94. A few other predictions sure to go wrong:

• Utley will play less than half the season. Injuries that are covered in this much darkness are NEVER good. Once a week the Phillies give us a little nugget of information, make up some new disease or injury name, schedule some specialist or test and call it a day. Utley can't even run yet, let alone make baseball-type moves. If he plays before the All-Star break, I'll be surprised.
• Ryan Howard will rebound to hit 40+ HR again. He, more than anyone else, knows how important he is to this team now that Werth is gone and Utley is likely to miss a large part of the season. Howard knows the knocks on his, and he can't be thrilled with his third-strike-looking end to last season. He's set for one final big year, before he likely starts to decline in 2012.
• Brad Lidge will suck. I'm not going to define "suck." But one thing is for sure, Brad Lidge is not having a good year. In fact, there's a good change this shoulder issue knocks him out for quite some time. That may be a good thing, since you never know what you're getting from him anyway. But thanks for 2008!
• No Phillies pitcher wins 20 games. I think Halladay and Lee should be good for about 18, but 20 is hard without run support. I simply don't see the Phillies scoring enough runs for their aces to have somebody earn a 'W' 20 times.
  
• The Phillies will win the division, but only by a game. The Braves are good, very good in fact, so I see this being a dogfight. Don't be surprised if the Braves run out to a lead, especially when the Phillies hit their usual May and June swoon. In the end I think they'll be there, but if things go right for the Braves (and wrong for our Phils) the division will probably be theirs to lose.
• World Series prediction? The Red Sox will get there from the AL. The NL? Well, I'll just let that one play out (I see a Braves-Phillies NLCS).
• Some awards: NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw; AL Cy Young: Jon Lester; NL MVP: Ryan Braun; AL MVP: Carl Crawford; NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman; AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Moustakas; NL Manager of the Year: Fredi Gonzalez; AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington
  

So let's hope that 1) I'm wrong about Utley, 2) The Braves suck and 3) Rubes makes another shrewd move or two at the deadline to help the offense. All told, we're in for an exciting year and if all goes well (fingers crossed) another parade come late October (or early November?).

Cliff Lee.

Stuff Your Worries In A Sack

[FanGraphs] - Yes, the aches and pains are starting to add up, but a broken thumb is not the kind of injury you expect to be a lingering problem, and his 2007 problem was caused by getting hit by a pitch. The nagging hip and knee pains are problematic, certainly, but given that he was still an elite player with both problems last year, I don’t think we can claim that either has demonstrated enough severity to cause his skills to diminish all that quickly. Will Utley average 150 games per year going forward? I’d call that unlikely at best, but the Phillies shouldn’t be too overly worried that he’s going to stop producing when he is on the field. It’s quite possible that they won’t get any more +7 WAR seasons from their second baseman, but there is enough precedent to suggest that he can still be quite useful for many years to come.

Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball. That, regardless of this latest injury, is an indisputable fact. When he is on the field and healthy, Utley produces at a rate that few other players in MLB can match. He walks, hits for power, steals bases and fields 2nd base better than any other guy in the league. But, as an article by Dave Cameron at FanGraphs today mentions, he probably can't be counted to play 150+ games anymore. Age is slowly catching up to him, and things like "knee tendonitis" and his prior hip injury are just the first signs of what may become an issue over the rest of his career.

However, what is important to realize is that the rest of the Phillies roster has been upgraded with this in mind. Rubes was smart, he realized that he had a declining offense that may never return to it's 2007-2008 levels. His response? Build a pitching staff that can help make up for that difference. Think about it, the Phillies pitching staff as a whole last year recorded 18.4 WAR (according to FanGraphs). It's reasonable to assume our four main starters, barring a major drop off in career performance, should be able to better than number BY THEMSELVES (combined last year those four totaled 22.2 WAR, so even with a drop off, or missed starts due to injury, they should surpass 2010's total). Add in a good year from Blanton and decent relief pitching and you're looking at a pitching staff that should be improved enough to handle any further drop off our offense has.

So, while we are all worried about Utley, the Phillies are still a very good team built to handle the 162 game schedule in a variety of ways. If the offense goes cold, the pitching can help them avoid long losing streaks. When the offense is hot, they'll dominate. Let's all hope Utley get healthy, but lets not worry too much just yet. This team is going to win a lot of games this year. Trust me.

Now back to your regularly scheduled funny videos and crazy news stories.

Baseball Returns Today, Four Phils Prospects Make Top 100

The Phillies tweeted out this lineup card for today's exhibition game against Florida State. Utley and Rollins will be the only two regulars not in the lineup this afternoon. Don't get too excited Mister Antsy Pants, the game will not be on TV or on the radio. I know, it blows. I was all set to ignore working this afternoon too.

As a quick tidbit, the highly respected Baseball America released their Top 100 Prospects list for 2011. In no surprise, here are the Phils who made the cut and their respective ranking:

4. Domonic Brown
39. Jonathan Singleton
56. Brody Colvin
70. Jarred Cosart

No real surprises here. I've seen Cosart and Colvin flip-flopped in other experts' rankings. I personally think Cosart will be the better of the two.  (I base this soley on his nasty fastball... I really have no business predicting prospects.  I don't know shizz.) But really, those four guys will be vital for the Phillies future and it proves once again, that the farm system is well stocked - even after assembling the greatest pitching rotation in the history of life.

Joe Blanton Is Taking The Picture

This appeared on the great Todd Zolecki's blog this morning. Apparently this photo shoot is actually for a NY magazine. Less surprisingly, they didn't bother to ask Joe Blanton about it.

I know, I know. I thought R2C2 had made a stand against all group photos and interviews that don't include Heavy B too. But in the grand scheme of things, Joe Blanton's homered in a World Series, will have a great year as the 5th starter, and is a millionaire. Don't feel too bad for the guy. He's just happy to be here.

[h/t The Zo Zone]

Dom Brown Will Thwack Many A Ding Dong This Year

I'm sold. Just give him the job. Having so many veterans around him can only help accelerate his rise to future super-stardom, right? Right?? According to Jim Salisbury's article on CSN Philly, Dom Brown not only fixed the flaw in his swing, but added 10 pounds of muscle as well. I can't wait till he's shagging fly balls in his hat and rocketing moonshot dingers at missile-like speed. It’s going to be epic.

[CSNPhilly]

BOOM, ROASTED.

So earlier this week most of us saw the photo above of Cliff Lee rockin' a "BOOM" shirt. As amazingly awesome as (all alliterations aside) that shirt is, Crossing Broad was able to confirm that they weren't for sale. Stupid Nike.

Thankfully, though, the folks over at I Don't Give A Schmidt took it upon themselves to make one. So, yea, I know what I'll be wearing opening day. I suggest you do the same.

BOOM. Cliff Lee.

[image c/o The Zo Zone]

Google Image Fun - Pitching Rotation Edition

So I Google "Phillies pitchers" and I found the gem of a photo above. Apparently this was the cover shot for the Dallas Morning News and their 2006 MLB season preview. The Rangers, who must have been so proud of themselves at the time, spent an off-season acquiring past and future Phillies pitchers Adam Eaton, Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla. Not exactly Halladay, Lee and Oswalt (hell, not even Joe Blanton). The Rangers finished that season 80-82, with Eaton making only 12 starts and Millwood and Padilla pitching to 4.50 ERAs. Yea...someone lost their job for that one.

Oh, and the answer to the provocative cover story question? No, no they can't.

All the more reason to love Rubes. And our pitching staff.

Smile.

[photo via phillies.com]

Michael Young, Heartbreaker

I have to say, I had a similar reaction when the Phillies traded Bobby Abreu. /sarcasm

[Video via Big League Stew]

Uh oh! SI Curse Strikes Phillies?

Sports Illustrated never gets their predictions right. Ever. I mean, this is the magazine that had the Bears in the Super Bowl this year AND picked the Mets to win the World Series last year. So, needless to say, they haven't even been the ballpark (bad pun alert!) recently.

Well, Phillies fans, you better hope their prognastication skills have improved because SI has tabbed your Philadelphia Phillies the 2010 World Series winner. And if that wasn't a jinx enough, they've throw our new ace Roy Halladay on the cover.

I take a little solace in knowing that the Phillies are an obvious pick, they have an All-Star lineup and added the game's best pitcher in the offseason. So, since I'm confident they can win the World Series, I keep telling myself that I shouldn't be worried when a silly magazine (seriously, who read magazines anymore anyway) picks them as their preseason champion. Here's to hoping they're right.

And if they aren't, well, fuck you Sports Illustrated.

NEWSFLASH: Joe Blanton Has Muscles

In what I'm sure comes as a suprise to many, Joe Blanton actually has muscles. And, apparently, he can strain those same muscles. Who knew?

All kidding aside, it looks like Blanton is going to miss at least his first two starts and could miss up to the first month of the season. While certainly not a killer blow, this does hurt. Blanton is a steady pitcher, someone you can always count on for six or seven innings each time out. It's assumed that Kyle 'DoubleK' Kendrick will take his spot in the rotation. The Phillies only need four starters for most of April due to so many off days, so it's likely Kendrick only gets one or two starts at max. But, it will allow him to showcase his skills so Charlie Manuel trusts him once Jamie Moyer starts getting shelled (this will happen). All told, the Phillies should be ok, as long as the rest of their staff stays healthy.

Knock on wood.

Is There Any Real Competition in the NL East?

Baseball season is right around the corner and TheWizWit [dot] com is here to get you prepared with more Phillies knowledge than your tiny little brain can handle. Over the next few weeks we're going to answer a multitude of questions facing our 2010 Fightin' Phils, all leading up to the ultimate question: Will the Phillies win the World Series? [The answer, yes.]

Is There Any Real Competition in the NL East?

Yes, there is a real threat and a familiar one at that: The Atlanta Braves. Now before you start having nightmares of 1995-2005, where the Braves won the NL East EVERY SINGLE YEAR, relax. The Phillies are still the better team and should win the division this year with plenty of room to spare. However, the Braves are a good team and if a few breaks go there way (and go against the Phils) then this could be a closer division race then we'd like to see.

Will Cole Hamels Bounce Back This Year?

Baseball season is right around the corner and TheWizWit [dot] com is here to get you prepared with more Phillies knowledge than your tiny little brain can handle. Over the next few weeks we're going to answer a multitude of questions facing our 2010 Fightin' Phils, all leading up to the ultimate question: Will the Phillies win the World Series? [The answer, yes.]

This may be one of the most important questions facing the Phillies in Twenty-Ten.

Will we get the World Series MVP Cole Hamels? Or will we be stuck with 2009 version featuring a prim donna, Hollywood head-case who'd rather complain about what time of the day he pitches than dominate the diamond?

Should I Laugh? No?...Yes? I Think...Yes!

This offseason I've had to listen to so many damn Mets fans go "man, once we get healthy, we'll be right there bro. You better watch out, the Amazin's are going come back strong this year! Jose Reyes baby! I'm a fucking guido!" it isn't funny. Mets fans suck and they honestly are the worst people on earth. So, after reading this news today, I just have to laugh.

Now, I would never wish injury or sickness upon anyone (except Rosie O' Donnell) but Mets fans make it so hard not to root for their team to fall apart. Plus, Jose Reyes is a total douchebag. So, without further ado:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAFUCKYOUMETSFANSHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAASSHOLESHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHISLEPTWITHYOURMOM
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAYOURDADISGAYHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Ok, now I feel better. Fuck the Mets.

Go Phils.

Who Will Be The Phils 5th Starter?

Baseball season is right around the corner and TheWizWit [dot] com is here to get you prepared with more Phillies knowledge than your tiny little brain can handle. Over the next few weeks we're going to answer a multitude of questions facing our 2010 Fightin' Phils, all leading up to the ultimate question: Will the Phillies win the World Series? [The answer, yes.]

Jamie Moyer vs Kyle Kendrick vs Antonio Bastardo vs Jose Contreras - one of these four will take the hill every 5th day…

The WizWit's 2010 Phillies Preview

Baseball season is right around the corner and TheWizWit [dot] com is here to get you prepared with more Phillies knowledge than your tiny little brain can handle. Over the next few weeks we're going to answer a multitude of questions facing our 2010 Fightin' Phils, all leading up to the ultimate question: Will the Phillies win the World Series? [The answer, yes.]

So, sit back, relax and let our brilliant minds educate you on all things Phillies. First off?

Is J.A. Happ really this good, or was he just lucky last year?

Beard-mentum is Back and Better Than Ever

When the Phillies released Eric Brunlett, the biggest worry was where they were going to get all of their beard-mentum. Beard-mentum, for those who don't know, is extremely important when it comes to winning a World Series. Without Brunlett's beard-mentum, the Phillies may not have prevailed in 2008 against the Rays.

So it's great to know that Jayson Werth has shown up at spring training ready to accept the role of Mr. Beard-mentum for the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies. No worries now folks, the championship is on it's way.

Special thanks to Philly.com for the photo. Not that they know I took it, but my mother always told me to be polite and say thank you, so I am.

He'll Win One Cy Young, and 11 Cole Hamels

See that photo? It's of Cole Hamels. In Florida. For Spring Training. Today.

It's back folks. Baseball Season 2010.

Go Phillies.

Less Snow, More Baseball

As Philadelphia and the surrounding area digs itself out of 258 inches of snow today, be comforted by this one fact:

Pitchers and catchers report in one week.

Fuck yea!

Quit Sobbing Into Your Cheesesteak...

In the aftermath of the now annual Philadelphia Eagles disappointment, we understand that you are all feeling a little helpless, shitty, and cheated...again.

Well buck up...bucko...a real winner is right around the corner. Here are a few things you might've missed during the Birds' fruitless Super Bowl quest over the past two weeks.