Friday, October 30, 2009

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall - Week 8

From the looks of this week's card, Vegas has bumped up the spreads in a few select games that would've otherwise been a tad lower.  Makes sense - they need to try and deter some of the every day chumps from betting all the big favorites each weekend.

After going 6-6-1 last week, Week 8 doesn't look it's going to get much easier - but that doesn't mean we won't try! 

Let's dive right in to the Shark's NFL spread picks! 

BALTIMORE (-3) over Denver
This is it.  This is the week we bet against Denver and they finally lose.  Both teams are off a bye and should be well rested, but I like Baltimore in this spot and for the Broncos to finally be exposed.

CHICAGO (-14) over Cleveland
Even though they got smoked last week, the Bears are still playing the Browns at home.  Like we talked about earlier, this game's line was probably ticked up a few more points that it would've normally been.  Be careful - but I just can't endorse betting on Cleveland.

Houston (-3.5) over BUFFALO
Houston was up big last week until the 49ers decided to switch QB's and do the "lightening in a bottle" routine.  Even though the Texans only managed a push, I still liked what I saw from them and attribute last week's second half collapse to the fact they had a QB enter the game that they had not game planned for.

INDIANAPOLIS (-13) over San Francisco
The QB I mentioned above is Alex Smith.  Don't let what he did last week fool you - he's not a very good player.  Peyton Manning is an excellent football player.  He is at home.  Roll with Indy.

Miami (+3.5) over NY JETS
The Dolphins are a good football team that knows how to run the football.  The Jets seem to be an all or nothing team week-to-week.  Take the points and don't be surprised for the outright win.

St. Louis (+4) over DETROIT
Wow, so you're actually thinking about betting this game?  You know there's only like 7 people watching this game in the whole country.  All seven don't even care how it ends.  But if you must....  At the time of this write-up, it's unknown if Stafford will play and Calvin Johnson might miss a second straight game as well.  The Lions can't stop the run and I have to believe Steven Jackson will take it upon himself to run for 300 yards and get this time at least one win.  Take the points.

Seattle (+10) over DALLAS
Seattle has had a week to rest their banged up team.  That should go a long way in against a Cowboys team that is coming of a big win versus Atlanta.  There's also a chance Dallas may find itself looking ahead a week to a big showdown in Philly.

PHILADELPHIA (+1) over New York Giants
This is definitely the toughest game on the board.  These two teams play each other hard and it's tough to figure out which way the game will actually go.  I have to say, I may have let my homerism get to me here.  If the Giants lose, that would be 3 straight losses - not something you'd ever expect from a team as talented as the Giants.  Factor in the fact - 1) that the Eagle's offensive line hasn't played well, 2) the Giants defensive line is very good, and 3) Westbrook may sit out - and it might be a long afternoon.  But even with all that, I expect the Eagles to play the Giants tough and use the home field crowd to their advantage.  Plus, the one thing the Giants don't have is the most explosive player in the league - Desean Jackson.

Oakland (+17) over SAN DIEGO
That is an obscene amount of points.  Granted, it's the Raiders and they haven't given you much reason to think they can pull off any type of competent football but the Chargers aren't really all that great either.  Their defense certainly isn't anyway.  The Raiders handled the Chargers pretty well earlier in the season so take the points and hope Jam-Jam doesn't screw you over too badly.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville
Here is one of those "the line is telling me something" games.  Jacksonville blew out Tennessee earlier this year and the Titans are starting the much maligned Vince Young.  Yet the Titans are favored?  Sneaky Vegas...very sneaky.  Well I'm not falling for it.

Vikings (+3) over GREEN BAY
The Packers are a very up and down team and the Vikings just lost a tough game on the road in Pittsburgh.  This is one of the games I like quite a bit this week.  As much as he has to play it off, everyone knows Brett Favre wants to not only win this game, but bury the Packers at Lambeau Field.  It's also worth noting that the Vikings defense leads the league in sacks with 25.  Aaron Rodgers is the most-sacked quarterback in the league at 25.  He will be under constant pressure with little time for decision making.  Take the points and look for a 7 point Viking win.

Carolina (+10.5) over ARIZONA
For some reason, I keep feeling inclined to pick the Panthers each week.  I don't know why.  They are awful.  Arizona's run defense is tremendous.  Running the ball is the only thing Carolina does well.  Something has to give.  The Panthers are bound to remember how to play football one of these weeks and Arizona may be ready for a let down after beating the Giants.

Atlanta (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints have to lose eventually and the Falcons are a solid football team.  This matchup should end up being closer than the line would lead you to believe as these teams square off on a national stage.  The Saints pulled off a dramatic second half win last week (and still managed to cover!)  Even though Atlanta got beat up by Dallas, I like them to rebound here.  They may not give New Orleans their first loss of the year, but I think they'll at least make it a challenge.

Enjoy this weeks games everybody!

1 comment:

  1. i love houston and minn today... should be easy money!