Thursday, December 10, 2009

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall - Week 14 NFL Spread Picks

It's Week 14 already and TheWizWit is here with another helping of free NFL picks against the spread. We've really brought the insight this week in hopes of winning you fools some extra X-Mas cash. That, or you'll just disappoint your loved ones. It's your call folks.

The Shark has added in his 3 Rules of Betting, given you an upset lock, as well as pointed out which game could be a total trap. And as always, we've picked every game in between.

Let's get to it.

Steelers (-10.5) over BROWNS
The Browns blow and the Steelers are in a must-win situation. Should the Steelers lose this game, they will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. I know the Steelers have played poorly against inferior opponents, but I just can't endorse betting on this Browns team. They're just that bad.

Broncos (+7) over COLTS
Here is your upset special. Not only do I think the Colt's won't cover the points, I'm betting that this is the game where they finally lose. The Colts are simply not good enough to go undefeated and the Broncos surprisingly match up well with them. I looked up all the stats and have facts to back this up, but am far too lazy to sit here and lay them out for you for free. Just trust me.

Jets (-3) over BUCCANEERS
The Buccaneers have a terrible run defense and the Jets own the league's #1 rushing offense. Mark Sanchez is out and Kellen Clemens will be starting this week, but don't let that deter you here. The line moved down slightly after the news Sanchez wasn't playing so you're getting a bargain. The Jets passing offense is very vanilla and nothing Clemens can't handle in Sanchez absence. Sanchez sitting is not as big of a loss as you think. Rule #1- try to not out-smart yourself. Over-analyzing a game is the best way to end up wrong in the end. The Jets are a better team. Lay the points.

Bengals (+7) over VIKINGS
This really should be a great game and I envision it being somewhat close for the majority. I think the Vikings will win, but Cincy should hang around. Not too much insight here other than the fact I predict a 23-17 type game. Hopefully for the Vikings sake, Bryant McKinnie will remember to keep his 'tells' to a minimum.

CHIEFS (+1) over Bills
You know who has a harder time stopping the run than the Buccaneers? Yep, the answer is the Bills. They are dead last in rush defense. Here's Rule #2- for games being played outdoors in December, by two evenly matched teams, you pick the one who's at home and can run the ball effectively. I know you might be thinking, "The Chiefs are ranked 24th in rushing... how can you call that effective?" The answer - since Larry Johnson was jettisoned and Jamaal Charles took over the rushing duties, Charles has ran quite well and averaged 4.8 yards a carry. Now please never question me again.

BEARS (+3) over Packers
This is your Trap Game of the week. Green Bay is a very inconsistent team and is coming off a big win Monday night against the Ravens. Don’t underestimate a short week. The Bears have been huge disappointments this year, but they're at home and this is a rivalry game. The Bears aren't totally devoid of talent, so don't let that skew your perspective on the game. Many websites have this game as the 'Top Consensus' amongst users. That basically means most bettors will be betting hard on Green Bay. Do some research on previous weeks 'Consensus' games if you have the time. The majority of the public is usually wrong. If you don't know how to find that info, feel free to ask in the comments or email us at

Saints (-10.5) over FALCONS
This is a tough game to pick at this time. Right now, both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are listed as questionable to play. If they don't, the Saints will blow Atlanta out in the same fashion the Eagles did last week. My guess is, however, that Ryan will play and Turner will sit. That might change things, but I like the Saints to keep rolling here. Ryan himself has struggled at times this season. When you couple the fact he's playing hurt and is taking limited snaps in practice, it's hard to not lean towards laying the points.

RAVENS (-14) over Lions
The Ravens are at home and Matt Stafford isn’t playing. Expect a blowout. Oh, and fun fact – the Ravens are 9-0 against the spread versus a team with a losing record. So yeah, pick Baltimore.

Dolphins (+3) over JAGUARS
This should actually be a pretty competitive matchup. Too bad no one in Jacksonville will actually see it. It's a tough game to handicap, but that is going to lead me to Rule #3. This rule should be applied to ALL betting situations, not just this one. If you are wavering between two teams, do yourself a favor and TAKE THE POINTS. Again, I'm doing this shit for free so I'm not going to take the time to give you stone cold facts. But do some research and you'll realize that underdogs are covering at a considerably higher rate this season than in years past. To be honest, I'm not sure why, but this stuff is all about trends.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Panthers
The Patriots have lost 2 games in a row and are clinging to a one game lead division lead. Two factors have me pushing the Pats. 1) They play lights-out at home. And 2) I have to believe Bill Belichick is completely pissed about those two losses and cannot wait to absolutely thrash an inferior opponent. Expect touchdowns to come early and often as the Pats pile it on.

TEXANS (-6) over Seahawks
The Texans are the most average team in the league year in and year out. Some games they look brilliant, others just clueless. Playing the Seahawks should help them play better. Steve Slaton was put on IR this week, but I still think it's not going to matter much.

TITANS (-13) over Rams
Kind of a boring game. Outside of Chris Johnson and his inevitable 85 yard touchdown run, nothing exciting or noteworthy is going to happen. Lay the points here on the basis the Rams suck dong, and suck it even harder when they play on the road.

Redskins (-1) over RAIDERS
Oh look, another couple of teams nobody cares about. At least this game is going to be competitive... I guess. I don't know, who am I kidding, you shouldn't be betting this game. Period. There's no reason for it. But if you must, take the team with a good defense and bet against the one with this thing for an owner.

Chargers (+3) over COWBOYS
Take a look at the calendar. What month is it? December you say? Well then Tony Romo and the Cowboys surely cannot win. In all seriousness, these are two teams that appear headed in different directions. The Chargers play very well at the end of each season and they're the ones getting the points. Refer to Rule 3 if you're thinking otherwise.

Eagles (+1) over GIANTS
Don't let the Giants fool you with their win last week. They aren't that good. The Cowboys dominated that game, but just weren't competent enough to get themselves a win. Andy Reid is going to have the Eagles ready to play in what is a critical game to ultimately decide the division. I'd hate to see the Philly media after a loss against the Giants on the heels of Andy's big contract extension, and I'm sure Andy Reid feels the same way. Considering the Birds success in NY last season and their domination last week, I was actually a little surprised to see they were a dog here.

49ERS (+3.5) over Cardinals
Call it a hunch. The Cardinals might've left it all on the field after defeating Minnesota last week and could be up a let-down. San Fran always seems to play the Cardinals tough and even beat them earlier in the year on the road. I really can't fault you for going with Arizona here - they've been playing absolutely awesome of late. My gut is just telling me otherwise.

Enjoy the games everyone!

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