Saturday, September 25, 2010

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall: Week 3 NFL Spread Picks

The Shark had a dream the other night. Some of the details are foggy, but I remember Xena the Warrior Princess was there and she was riding me. She was riding me and I was made of SOLID SILVER.  It was awesome - I was as smooth as Dave Chappelle's balls. Things were going tremendously until I found myself smack-dab in the midst of a sneak-attack nightmare. Xena began turning into Troy Polamalu from the Head and Shoulders commercial, and I think a seagull pooped right in my eye. They say getting pooped on is good luck, but I say that's GULLSHIT. Good thing I woke up before things got too horrifying.

The lesson I learned from this dream: finish up my standard mascot picture so I won't have to make up terrible dream sequences. We can't have this weekly feature... jumping the shark. Hi-yo! Sigh... I hate myself.

Alright enough nonsense. The Shark went 9-6-1 last week. That’s a record of 16-13-3 for the year. Winning record equals money in your pockets. We wouldn't steer you wrong. So without further ado, your Week 3 picks coming right up after the jump.

Home teams are in CAPS.  Someday I won't remind you of that.

Titans (+3) over GIANTS
Both of these teams are coming off losses where they looked pretty awful.  I think the Titans will have an easier time recovering.  Everything went wrong from the opening kickoff for Tennessee last week and they never really got going. 

PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Bills
Pats are at home and coming off a loss - they're going to take their aggression out on the poor Bills (who are switching to Ryan Fitzpatrick this week.)  The Bills offense (and season) is in shambles.  This has 34-10 written all over it.

RAVENS (-11) over Browns
Common knowledge tells you the Browns are a cursed franchise and will lose this game.  The question is by how much.  Some bettors stats to consider: Browns are 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in the last four meetings, are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in this matchup since 2007.

Steelers (-3) over BUCCANEERS
Is it me, or does this line look curiously low?  Sure, the Bucs are at home, but have you seen the Steelers defense this year?  They easily have the best D in the league right now and well... the Bucs don't have a good offense.  Charlie Batch will manage the game, Tampa will commit turnovers, and the Steelers will win by 7 in a close game.

PANTHERS (+3.5) over Bengals
I swear, I'm like an abused woman and the Panthers are my baby's daddy.  I've bet on them each of the first two weeks, got slapped around, and now I'm back.  Sigh.  What is wrong with me?  As I mentioned in last week's post, I was in Delaware Park for legal parlay betting last week.  Guess which team screwed me out of winning money on Super Teaser?  That's right, the one with Matt Moore's stupid face.  So why bet on them here?  The Bengals are the overwhelming favorite by the public to cover this week.  I'd be breaking Rule #1 if I didn't go with the Panthers.  (FYI - I went against my own rule last week with the Patriots and I got burned.  Serves me right.)

Falcons (+4) over SAINTS
The Falcons are going to keep this one close.  I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off an outright win, and here's why: The Saints are coming off a short week having played the Niners in a tough game on Monday night.  They lost their spark plug, Reggie Bush, to a broken leg.  And finally, Atlanta possesses one of the absolute best rushing offenses in the league.  The Saints struggled mightily against Frank Gore, and Michael Turner will pick up right where he left off.

49ers (-3) over CHIEFS
I can't bet on the Chiefs.  Can't do it; won't do it.  I don't care how many times they cover.  Let's put aside the fact their head coach is a dipshit and their quarterback shouldn't have a job.  Old man Thomas "3.7 yards a carry" Jones is getting TWICE AS MANY CARRIES as Jamaal Charles.  Are you shitting me?  Charles is a very special player with a threat to score anytime he touches the ball.  But no, you're the Chiefs, so you can't possibly do something so logically. 

VIKINGS (-11) over Lions
The Lions are a publicly backed underdog this week with over 60% of bettors siding with them.  That's a little scary.  Remember, they're the Lions and they don't have their franchise quarterback on the field.  I know what you're saying, "But the Vikings have been booty, son!".  Yes, that's true, but did you see what Shady McCoy did to the Lions on the ground last week?  Adrian Peterson is going to get 35 carries and run for 200 yards on Sunday.  I only speak the truth.

Cowboys (+3) over TEXANS
The Shark is feeling pretty good on this one.  Dallas absolutely cannot go to 0-3.  It's not going to happen.  Sooner or later, Wade Phillips is going to put the Chili's menu down and realize they need to run the ball.  I'm guessing that happens this week.  The Texans embarrassed Dallas during the pre-season on national TV and I'm sure ole Double J hasn't forgotten.  If Dallas loses this game, I fully expect Jerry Jones to force Wade Phillips to eat a shit sandwich.  After Phillips licks his lips and asks for seconds, Jerry will fire him.

Redskins (-4) over RAMS
The Rams seem like they've been a 4 point dog in each game this year.  This could be a trap game for the Skins but I'm going to assume they'll take care of biznazz.  Either way, I don't care about this game - I'm lucky enough to have no Rams or Redskins in fantasy this year.  It's going to be a boring 17-10 type game where Chris Cooley scores a 40 yard TD to win it with a couple minutes to go.

Eagles (-3) over JAGUARS
Okay, so the Eagles have screwed me over two weeks in a row.  Last week's pick against Detroit was the right play, but we fell victim to a backdoor cover.  Shit like that happens.  Fast forward to this week, and I noticed something kind of odd.  This game opened up at Eagles -3 when everyone thought Kolb was starting.  With the announcement that Vick won the job, the line didn't move.  I'm not sure how that's possible.  I was expecting a line of -5 or -6 here, but I'm running with the bargain.  So anyway, can you name one player on the Jaguars defense?  Did you say Aaron Kampman?  Ok, try naming a player with working knees,  I'll wait..... Times up, of course you can't think of anything - the Jaguars are terrible.  Andy Reid wouldn't have made this switch if he didn't think Vick was going to propel this team to convincing wins.  I don't know about you, but I'm a believer.  You know who isn't ready to buy in?  Bill Simmons, who picked the Jaguars to cover this game.  I'll properly re-phrase Simmons' paraphrase of Winston Wolf explaining why he's so low on the Birds- "I'm not ready to suck Mike Vicks' dick just yet".  Well guess what, the Shark's down with sucking Michael's Vick and will embrace our new starting QB with open fins and an open mouth! homo.

Colts (-6) over BRONCOS
I don't have any stats or facts as to why I think the Colts will cover this game.  I just know that the Colts are a very good team and the Broncos aren't.  A lot of how this game turns out will hinge on how much Denver can get up for the game after the suicide of a teammate earlier this week.  I'd bet on them being naturally sluggish.

SEAHAWKS (+6) over Chargers
The Seahawks are a team that really uses their homefield to their advantage.  It's a very tough place to play even though no one really thinks about it in that light.  The Chargers pooped all over the Jaguars last week, but most of that was because of the shit-ton of turnovers they committed.  After seeing how uncomfortable this Charger team looked against the Chiefs in Week 1, I'm not convinced they should be favored by as much as they are.  After all, San Diego seems to be inconsistent every September.  They don't decide to turn it on till the calendar turns to October.

Raiders (+4.5) over CARDINALS
Bruce Gradkowski is taking over the starting QB duties from Jason Campbell this week.  Brucey isn't that great of QB by any means, but he does seem to win games and this Raiders team does rally around him.  The Raiders are currently among the league leaders in rushing offense while the Cardinals are one of the worst teams stopping the run.  Sounds like a recipe for success to me.  Now I just have to hope Gradkowski doesn't revert back to his Tulane-point-shaving self.

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Jets
This game is essentially a pick em.  We're going to go with the home team and assume Mark Sanchez can't put two competent games together in a row.  Here's better logic - don't bet this game, it's gonna be down to the wire and you really don't want to sweat it out, do you?

BEARS (+3) over Packers
We're going for the Monday night upset here.  The Bears will have a completely bonkers home crowd behind them on Monday Night Football.  The Bears run defense has been great so far this year and their passing offense is one of the best in the league.  It seems like Cutler has put it all together and will be in a throwing match against Aaron Rogers.  This will definitely be a close game, and I'm pretty sure whoever wins will do so by only a field goal.

And now I will leave you with this.  You have that stupid cat saying "hang in there" on your cubicle wall?  Well this is what keeps the Shark motivated, sucka.

Good luck, and enjoy the games everyone!


  1. even if these picks go 0-16, the shark cartoon is still a win in my book!

  2. Old Shark cartoon meme is old