Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Roy Halladay Deal Not Worth It?

So we still don't know anything in regards to the biggest trade in recent Phillies history. Rather impressive considering we live in a world where news travels lightening fast and details leak well before 'official' press conferences are scheduled. Ruben Amaro, like always, has played this close to the vest but that isn't stopping news outlets from taking stabs at the real question - besides Cliff Lee, who else are the Phillies giving up?

CSN made a report late last night as to who it may be. And honestly, it leaves me a little less excited than I was 12 hours ago.

Word is, either previously untouchable pitching prospect Kyle Drabek or reigning Rookie of the Year JA Happ may be included in this deal. While I was very excited about Halladay yesterday, news like that gives me some reservations.

Lets take Happ - if you ship him off, you have effectively made your team worse fro 2010 by creating another hole as the Phillies will be forced to find another starting pitcher to take his place in the rotation. Could they make another move, or sign a free agent? Sure they could. But odds are, the Phils will be done trading after this, and would be forced to sign a stop-gap. Unless they're okay with going in the season starting two of these three guys - Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, or Antonio Bastardo....

Obviously, this move gives the Phillies the security of having an Ace in their rotation for the next 3 - 5 years and makes sense from that standpoint. It's no secret Lee wants to test free agency and there is absolutely no guarantee the Phillies would win in the bidding war thats sure to take place on the open market.

It's also notable that if the Phillies kept Lee and he left as a free agent, the Phils would receive a 1st round draft pick from the team that signs him as compensation (along with another supplemental pick) due to his 'Type A' status. So it's possibe that if the Phillies send Drabek instead of Happ, they will lose out on a first round pick, as well as the player who's worn the tag of 'future ace' in Drabek.

Having said all this, we still don't know shit and Ruben Amaro has proven to be an excellent General Manager thus far. Let's wait and see how this shakes out later today - I have to believe this will all make sense in the end. Maybe we'll be the ones receiving a top pitching prospect in the end by way of Seattle. Who knows? But the names Drabek and Happ mean a whole lot more to the organization that previously
reported Michael Taylor and Travis d’Arnaud.  As long as this doesn't affect the opportunity to win right now, I'm all for it.

[**UPDATE**]  Jason Stark was on Mike & Mike this morning and has reported the Phillies would likely give up Drabek and Taylor, meaning Happ would still be in the Phillies starting rotation.  He has also stated that the Phillies would receive the Mariners top two pitching prospects as well as an equivalent talent to Michael Taylor to replenish the farm system.  It's anybody's best guess at this point, but if Stark is right, the move makes more sense considering the additional prospects the Phils would pick up.  Bring on 2010.


  1. I had a dream last night, totally weird, Phillies traded for Indians pitcher Aaron Laffey and he took over the 4th spot. Won 16 games for us...

  2. Drabek is the only real issue here. Halladay is better than Lee, and we'll have him for more than 1 season. Taylor is replaced by another outfielder whose minor league stats look awesome. The catcher doesn't project to be all that good. If the pitcher we get back lives up to his potential as a 1st round pick then this trade is awesome. If Drabek ends up developing into an ace then maybe it isn't so great. The bottom line is we got the best player in the deal. If only we could have kept Lee and got Halladay...

  3. agreed...if they had included happ as well, the deal would've looked worse b/c of the new need that wouldve been created. Now that the dust has settled and we know who is defintely going where, it is obvious this trade is more about 2011-2013, than it is about 2010.