Saturday, January 16, 2010

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall - Divisional Round Playoff Spread Picks

We’ve reached the most exciting round of the NFL playoffs – the divisional round. Year in and out, this round has offered the most exciting, compelling, and most competitive games of the playoffs. Looking at the matchups, this should week should be no different.

The Shark’s picks went 3-1 last weekend, so lets just get right to it and let the magic happen.


Saints (-7) over Cardinals
The Saints needed the rest a bye week brings to heal up before their playoff run. They were a little banged up at the tail end of the season, and the extra time should do wonders for this team. Don't get me wrong, this wasn't an easy pick by any means.  It's very hard to bet against Kurt Warner in the playoffs. The guy is ridiculous. To be completely honest with you, I have good feeling that Arizona might actually cover here. So why is the Shark going with the Saints, you ask? Two reasons. 1.) Because it’s a smarter play to go against the general public’s consensus (which is what the Shark has been telling you all season). Of the weekend’s four divisional games, Zona is being picked most to cover by 58% of bettors. And 2.) While the Shark has picked winners at a professional handicapper-like rate this year, he’s had several bad reads on Saints this season. Just seems right to go against the traditional gut feeling here. Saints win 31-23.

Ravens (+7) over Colts
I don't think the Colts are as great as record shows. They struggled at times throughout this season against many opponents, often pulling games out in the 4th quarter. I just feel like the 7 points is far too many. Heck, I actually kind of like Baltimore to win this game outright. Unlike the Saints, I think this bye week coupled with the fact they rested starters for the final two weeks of the regular season will actually hurt the Colts. I think they will lose some of their edge, and come out flat to start the game. By the time they get in gear, the game may be too far along to cover a spread of 7 points. Going with the underdog – Ravens win 23-21

Vikings (-3) over Cowboys
I know the Cowboys are incredibly hot right now, but I was actually surprised the spread here was only 3 points. That basically means, that if these two teams met at a neutral site, the teams would be rendered 'even' and the game would be a pick em. I just don't see it. The Vikings have been nothing short of dominant at home this season and have one of the most complete and well-rounded teams in the league. People don’t notice it, but a lot of Dallas’ success comes from their running game being able to open up the field for Tony Romo. The Vikings have two of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in the league playing on their defensive line. If Dallas can’t run the ball, the will not have a chance to win this game. Remember in early December when the Cowboys played the Redskins and looked downright bad? Yeah, Washington has a big defensive tackle in the middle of their line too ($100 million man Albert Haynesworth). Fun betting fact on this game – the favorite is 7-0 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Vikings win 27-17.

Chargers (-8) over Jets
I typically don't like betting spreads over 7 points, but you have to lay them in this matchup. The Chargers just have too many weapons for the Jets. Darrelle Revis can't cover all of San Diego's 6'5” receiving threats. Add in the fact that this is a cross country trip for the Jets and this figures to be a game New York will need Mark Sanchez to help win. Everyone knows you can’t count on a rookie QB to throw the ball over 30 times a game and expect good things to happen. I think this is the week the Jets defense begins to buckle, and as San Diego looks to pour it on, the Jets will have to abandon their running game and try to play catch-up. And the New York Jets are not a team built to play from behind. Chargers win 24-13.

2 comments:

  1. Good call, Chargers 48-10 >=]

    ReplyDelete
  2. 48-10 chargers? musta got that pick from WackGambling.com

    ReplyDelete