Saturday, November 13, 2010

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall: Week 10 NFL Spread Picks

Oh my.  How have I not heard of this before?  A wonderfully done piece of cinema such as this should've certainly set off my Shark senses.  I just don't even know where to begin.  I suppose you should first take notice to who's landed the starring role in this film - Yes, that's the same Jaleel White who is better known to you as Steve Urkel.  Or Stefan Urkel.  Sadly, there is no trailer for the movie yet, but IMDB tells me it is to be released next month.  What's that?  Oh, yes this is indeed A SEQUEL.  Mega Shark won his battle against Giant Octopus in the first movie.  That film starred the Renegade himself, Lorenzo Lamas.  If you want to be entertained for 1 minute and 6 seconds, please watch that trailer here.  If Reginald VelJohnson makes a cameo in this latest installment, my head might asplode.

Alright, so Vegas took a poop in the Shark's cereal last week.  He had his worst outing of the year going 4-8-1.  Das just turrible.  We now stand at a season record of 68-56-6.  Not to worry - the Shark will rebound like the great Reggie Evans and you'll be able to forget all about last week's poor showing.

FALCONS (pk) over Ravens
Good start to the week.  If you follow us on Twitter, The Shark correctly predicted this game for you last night.  Let's hope the rest of these games fall in line too.

I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but I'm really just assuming Peyton Manning will come out firing a week after losing.  You just know he put in extra work this week and won't take a 2-6 Bengals team lightly.  Carson Palmer has perfected the art of throwing a meaningless touchdown at the end of games, so a backdoor cover scares me a little.

Texans (+1) over JAGUARS
I really like the Texans in this spot.  Houston is in desperate need of a win and is coming off losses to two tough opponents (San Diego and Indy).  A lot of bettors are down on them right now and high on the Jaguars after their dismantling of Dallas before their bye.  There is great value in this line for the Texans.  Things to keep in mind: The underdog is 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in this head to head matchup; Houston is 11-5 ATS in the last 15 head to head meetings; and the Jaguars are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games.

Titans (-1.5) over DOLPHINS
I like the Titans here as long as Vince Young plays.  He looked great going into the bye week and he'll have a good opportunity to continue it here.  The Miami secondary isn't very good and can definitely be caught sleeping on big plays.  Not only will Vince Young have a good chance to hit Randy Moss deep, but his presence alone will open things up for Chris Johnson.  The Titans are an underrated team and I think they'll take a step towards proving they belong in the NFL's upper echelon this week.

Vikings (-1) over BEARS
The Vikings should win as long as they don't decide to throw the game just to get Brad Childress fired.  That's not a given either.  They have some serious hatred for that bald bastard.  But even if they try to give the game away, the Bears may give it right back.  Chicago has looked really bad of late and don't have the overall talent the Vikings do.  Instead, let's bet on this over/under:  Total number of combined Favre and Cutler interceptions.  I'll set the line at 3.5.  Discuss amongst yourselves.

Lions (+3) over BILLS
How in the hell could you even think about laying points with a team that can't even manage to win a game?  Would I be surprised if the Bills won?  No, not really now that Matt Stafford blew out his shoulder again.  But I just can't feel good about myself betting on a team hasn't stumbled into a win at the halfway point of the season.

Jets (-3) over BROWNS
Maybe the Browns are legit?  Picking them last week was one of the few things I actually did right.  This week I'm going to sell high on them and roll with the Jets.  It's not possible for the Jets to take the Browns lightly after seeing the fate the Patriots met last week.  It won't be an easy game for the Jets, but I think they'll cover.

Panthers (+6.5) over BUCCANEERS
Seems like the public's favorite team to bet on this week is Tampa.  As always, we'll go the other way.  Some stats to consider:  The Panthers are 8-3 against the spread versus teams with winning records and they are 13-6 against the spread versus the Bucs.

BRONCOS (+1) over Chiefs
I'm a bitter asshole.  I'm really just picking against the Chiefs because they've screwed me over two weeks in a row.  Earlier in the year, I refused to bet on them because I was a non-believer, yet they kept covering.  Then I finally start picking them and they give me the big 'Fuck you'.  So screw it, I'm going to get this game wrong regardless of what I pick, so I'll go against them.  You're welcome Chiefs fans.

Rams (+6) over 49ERS
The Rams are getting a little disrespected with this line here.  That team has played well this season and the 49ers have barely been able to play competently for 20 minutes a game.  Take the points people.

Seahawks (-3) over CARDINALS
Teams typically cover the week after getting blown out so we'll go with Seattle here.  Arizona is also not a very good team to play as a favorite either - they're 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the favorite to win.

GIANTS (-14) over Cowboys
I'm not a fan of giving away this many points, but the Giants have played like one of the best teams in the league.  They haven't played any team that is considered 'elite', but they're beating everyone very convincingly.  I do want to caution - I'm a little worried the Cowboys will come out with some fire now that they have a new coach.  Plus, you know they don't want to listen to Jerry Jones bitch all week.

Patriots (+4.5) over STEELERS
I feel really good about this pick.  Simply put, the Patriots have owned the Steelers of late.  New England has won 6 of the last 8 meetings and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 9.  In the last 10 meetings between these two, the underdog has covered 80% of the time.  OK, enough statistics.  Just remember the Pats got clobbered last week against the Browns, and Bill Belichick always seems to have his team ready coming off a loss.  It should be a close game, but 4.5 is too much to give New England here.

Eagles (-3) over REDSKINS
Doesn't it seem like the Redskins always cover against the Eagles?  If you said 'yes', then you win a prize. That prize?  Cancer....almost for certain at some point.  Sure, the Skins have covered the spread in 4 out of the past 5 contests.  But let's be serious, can you honestly put your hard earned cash on team as dysfunctional as the Redskins?  Their offense is in shambles and McNabb would rather eat broken glass than play for Mike Shanahan.  On the flip side, Mike Vick is playing out of his mind right now, and at this rate will win the NFL MVP.  As tough as the Redskins play the Eagles, you cannot bet against the Birds this week.  If you did, you could be betting on Rex Grossman.  There's no telling what old Lobster Pig is capable of.  Eagles win 27-17.

Good luck and enjoy the games!

No comments:

Post a Comment