Friday, October 1, 2010

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall: Week 4 NFL Spread Picks

My cousin e-mailed me this picture of him catchin' some air at SealHunt 2010.  Trust me: dude is not to be flexed with.

Anyway, I hope you fools followed along last week.  The Shark managed another solid outing and continued to stuff money in your pockets.  In case you haven't noticed yet, underdogs are covering at quite a nice rate so far this season.  One thing I've always said is that, when in doubt, just take the points.

Let me hit you with some numbers.  Last week we went 10-6 against the spread, bringing our season total to 26-19-3.  If you don't know, they're pretty impressive for just your regular dude picking games.  Let's compare that record to a couple other places who offer weekly spread picks.  Bill Simmons has a renowned NFL spread picks column as well as fellow sports blog site, The Big Lead (which you should be checking out if you don't already).  Simmons is sitting at 25-20-3 on the year and TBL is trying to get above water at 21-23-3.  Once again I say, TheWizWit is the shit.

Sigh... You're so money and you don't even know it. Onto the picks!

Broncos (+7) over TITANS
This line is probably pretty accurate, so I'm going to go with the points.  The Broncos had a tough Week 3 emotionally as they dealt with the death of their friend and teammate. On top of that, they had to play a very good Colts team.  The Broncos should be able to focus a little better this week and keep things close.

STEELERS (-1) over Ravens
Do yourself a favor and don't bet this game.  There's really no way of knowing which team will come out on top.  Sure, all you have to do is pick a winner, but in a game that's going to be as physical as this one, you should just steer clear altogether.  This game will almost certainly end up being decided by a field goal.

BROWNS (+3) over Bengals
This might be the most boring game of the week.  I'm not one of the people buying into the Bengals actually being a good team.  Carson Palmer has not played well and it's a matter of time before another team capitalizes.  The unsuspecting Browns are as good as anyone else to catch the Bengals napping.  Plus, while the Cincy defense has played well, they're giving up 4.5 yards a carry to opposing rushing offenses.  Peyton Hillis should have another big day.

PACKERS (-14) over Lions
Here's what you need to know: The Packers are coming off a very tough loss on the road in Chicago.  They're playing a much inferior opponent at home.  The Lions will still start Shaun Hill and may be without Jahvid Best.  Having said all that, I typically don't like laying this many points, but if you must wager on this game - definitely go with Green Bay.

Panthers (+14) over SAINTS
Could I really be this much of a foolish asshole?  Well the answer is a resounding YES.  I keep betting on the Panthers and they return the favor by kicking me in the nuts.  But listen, the Panthers will cover a game soon (winning a game is a whole other story), and this may be the right spot for them.  The Saints haven't played great football so far this year, and if John Fox wants to keep his job for a couple more weeks, he'll turn Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart loose on the Saints defense.

49ers (+7) over FALCONS
This is one of the games I like most this week.  The 49ers just simply cannot go 0-4 to start the season.  This team had high hopes of contending for a division crown.  If they get off to a start that bad, those hopes will certainly be in the shitter.  I also believe the odds-makers are begging you to take the Falcons here.  With Atlanta beating the Super Bowl champions last week and the Chiefs whipping the Niners, I would've expected a line more like -9 or -10. 

RAMS (+1.5) over Seahawks
I'm surprised more of the public isn't going with the Rams here.  What you need to know is that the Seahawks should only be bet when they're at home.  They've done a good job of sucking when on the road and that should continue here.  These aren't the same Rams from the last few years - they have a good young QB and a revamped defense.  They're a young team, but are really only a few plays away from being 3-0.

BILLS (+6) over Jets
This might be a let down game for the Jets.  This is the third division game they've played in a row after two tough wins against the Dolphins and Patriots.  The switch to Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Bills is a good thing too.  Now if they could just be smart enough to give Marshawn Lynch's carries to CJ Spiller, they might win a couple more games.  Since they're the Bills, they won't do anything too smart like that, but I think they'll do enough to keep the game close to a cover.

JAGUARS (+8) over Colts
I hate picking the Jags in this spot, but I think they'll rebound somewhat from last week.  Jacksonville always plays the Colts tough and always seem to get up and play well when facing them.  Eight of the last ten meetings between these two teams have resulted in a margin of victory of 8 points or less.  The Colts passing defense is pretty awful so I think David Garrard might actually be able to get some confidence early instead of imploding the way he has of late.

Texans (-3) over RAIDERS
You'd think the Raiders would be getting a little more than they are - especially considering they're at home.  But for once, I'm going to tell you take the side that looks like a gift.  The line is probably lower because Vegas doesn't know if Andre Johnson will play or not (I'm going to bet he does).  And you know what?  Even if he doesn't, the Texans have a much superior offense to the Oakland defense.  Don't overthink this one.

CHARGERS (-8.5) over Cardinals
Boy, was I wrong about Derek Anderson having a good year.  He sure blows.  I think the Chargers are going to run away with this one.  For one, they always play very well at home.  Secondly, the Cardinals defense is almost as bad as Anderson.  They are ranked 31st in the league against the run and Ryan Mathews is looking like he'll play.  Expect a big day from him.  I doubt the Cardinal offense will be able to muster much of anything considering their #2 and #3 receivers are already ruled out.  Should be an easy-peazzy win.

Redskins (+6.5) over EAGLES
Let me first say that I do expect the Eagles to win this game.  But I think it's just far more likely the game is won by a field goal than a touchdown.  The Redskins are better than the team you saw against the Rams last week -- it's quite possible they were caught looking ahead to this very game.  The reality is that the Redskins have played the Birds tough in recent years.  Of the last ten matchups, these teams are tied at 5-5.  And all of that was before the Redskins had a competent quarterback.  I have no doubt McNabb will keep the Skins alive in this game.  Regardless of how you feel about a particular player, EVERY guy in the NFL is a proud and arrogant asshole.  You have to be to play this game.  McNabb is no different.  You'd be a fool to think he hasn't been waiting for this moment since the trade went down. Prediction - McNabb keeps things close in a relatively low scoring game, but ultimately falls just short in crunch time.  Wait a sec... that sounds familiar...  Anyway, Birds win but don't cover 20-17.

GIANTS (-4) over Bears
I really don't like this game.  The line really doesn't make any sense at all.  Through the first 3 weeks of the season, the Bears have played well and the Giants have not.  You'd think the Bears would be the ones giving a point or two here.  The sole reason we're going with the Giants is because the line looks jacked up.  Just something fishy about it.

Patriots (-1) over DOLPHINS
Oh look, yet another game I don't like.  We'll go with the Pats since I really don't think Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will let this team lose to a division rival on a Monday night.  New England's shitty defense won't allow me to speculate further.

There you have it folks.  Tell your friends.  Hopefully all that bragging doesn't come back to bite me.  I really don't want to have to explain 3-11 to everyone...

Best of luck and enjoy the games!

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