Baseball season is right around the corner and TheWizWit [dot] com is here to get you prepared with more Phillies knowledge than your tiny little brain can handle. Over the next few weeks we're going to answer a multitude of questions facing our 2010 Fightin' Phils, all leading up to the ultimate question: Will the Phillies win the World Series? [The answer, yes.]So, sit back, relax and let our brilliant minds educate you on all things Phillies. First off?
Is J.A. Happ really this good, or was he just lucky last year?
The breakout of lefthander J.A. Happ was one of the biggest stories of the season last year. After starting the year in the bullpen (and pitching rather well while there), Happ got the chance to start Memorial Day weekend in New York. He held the vaunted Yankees offense to just two runs in six innings and never looked back. Happ finished the season 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA, twice throwing complete game shutouts. Incredible numbers for a rookie and he won some offseason hardware because of it. From the looks of it, the Phillies have found quite the gem in J.A. Happ.
Unfortunately, he's isn't this good. Don't get me wrong, Happ certainly belongs in a Major League rotation and has some room for growth. But the he's already 27 (yes, he actually OLDER than Cole Hamels, something most Phillies fans don't realize) so it's not like he's some young kid. He already is what he's going to be, a good lefty starter who should keep the Phillies in games and win 10-13 games each year. You don't agree? Well, let me convince you.
Happ was incredibly lucky last year, even if you factor in the "deceptive delivery" scouts say he has. He gave up 19 HR in just 23 starts, entirely too many for a guy who isn't a true strikeout pitcher and can get into trouble with walks. Considering he was able to hold the opposition to a .212 batting average with men on base, you can see how he's in for a rude awakening. If a few more of the HR's come with men on base (which you can safely assume will happen more than the eight times it happened last year) his ERA is going to rise. If you also consider that he was able to strand over 85% of baserunners he allowed (a number that is normally in the low to mid 70's for starters of his talent), well, ouch. Happ's ERA this season is more likely to be around 4.00 to 4.30 than 2.93.
But here is the catch, a guy with a 4.00 ERA isn't terrible. What do I think Happ can be this year? How about a left-handed Joe Blanton? Honestly, Joe Blanton's final line from last year: 12-8, 4.05 ERA, 163 K's, is a decent projection for Happ (althought Happ is likely to settle around 140-145 K's). J.A. Happ is going to be a very good #4 pitcher for the Phillies and, if he continues his lucky streak, could be even better. Who knows, maybe he just has some magic ability to limit hits and keep guys from scoring. Crazier things have happened, right?
[Of course, just before I finish this post, David Murphy covers the same thing in today's Inquirer. Bastard. Either way, check that article out here, it's a good read.]
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