Friday, December 10, 2010

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall: Week 14 NFL Spread Picks

It's amazing how many ridiculous shark related pictures one can find by performing a simple Google Image search.  It's quite fascinating.  I'm not totally sure what's going on in this photo, but it appears this gentleman is part of some sort of parade.  Granted, a shitty parade with only 15 people in attendance, but a parade nonetheless.  The real question is what this guy is celebrating?  I'm at a loss.  There aren't many clues besides Bicycle Shark Man, 'The Stock Man', and an '85 Sheepdog fast approaching.  He's got the Mardi Gras beads, so maybe this guy is entranced by some ladies big jugs.  At least that would explain why he's not able to straight in line with the rest of the parade.

Another week, another winning record.  Last weekend the Shark went 9-7, bringing the yearly total to 103-83-6.  Now let's make you some extra Christmas cash, shall we?

Colts (-4) over TITANS
Talk about your all-time backdoor covers. Sheesh. Hopefully you ignored our Twitter last night. Can't say I didn't at least warn you before I picked the Colts.

Packers (-7) over LIONS
All of the trends point to the Packers winning this one: 19-7-1 ATS versus teams with losing records, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs NFC North, 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 road games, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Detroit. Having said all that, I really wish this spread was either 6 or 6.5. The 7 scares me a little, so just be careful.

Raiders (+4.5) over JAGUARS
Let me say this up front - I just typed the line above 15 seconds ago and I'm already not a fan of this pick. The Raiders have been so up and down week to week, that it's just too difficult to predict if they'll feel like putting up a fight. The Jaguars have covered in their last 5 games, so you have to give them props. But continuing that trend is too hard to maintain. After a while, the books get honed in, get a good read, and end up making a lot of the money back on a team the public is riding on a hot streak.

Bengals (+9) over STEELERS
Well this pick pains me. As you know by now, I LOATHE the Bengals. I just think 9 points are too many to give a division rival. The last three meetings have been decided by a TOTAL of 14 points. Vegas pumped up this line a little bit. The Steelers are already a popular team the public bets on each week. The oddsmakers feel that since the Steelers are at home and playing a team that has disappointed all year, they can squeeze a couple extra points out of the public. Don't fall for it fella.

PANTHERS (+7.5) over Falcons
The public is pounding the Falcons this week. Nobody trusts the Panthers, and Atlanta is 10-2 and playing well. But I just have a feeling the Falcons will let their guard down a little for this game, and it'll be closer than expected. The home team has historically done well in this series and only 3 of Atlanta's 10 wins have been by more than 7 points. They just don't win games by large margins.

BILLS (-1) over Browns
If Colt McCoy were playing, the Browns would be favored and I'd probably be picking them. But alas, Jake Delhomme will get another start. And with that comes the consequence of another loss for Cleveland.

REDSKINS (+3) over Buccaneers
I like the Skins to win this one outright. Sure, they got manhandled last week and were completely embarrassed. But teams tend to bounce back the week after getting the shit kicked out them. Remember the Redskins the week after the Eagles whooped them 59-28? They came back and beat the Titans in a tough overtime game.

VIKINGS (+2.5) over Giants
It's amazing what a new coach will do for a floundering team. The Vikings are playing pretty well right now and have always been a tough team to face in the Metrodome.

Rams (+9) over SAINTS
Hard to go against the Rams these days. They've failed to cover only 3 times this year. Meanwhile, the Saints never seem to do well when they're a favorite laying more than two scores. If Bradford doesn't make mistakes (he's done a fantastic job of protecting the ball as a rookie so far), the Rams should easily keep this close enough to cover.

49ERS (-5.5) over Seahawks
I'm not suggesting you bet this game, but the line is telling me to go with the Niners. It's kind of hard to think the 49ers are almost 6 points better than the Seahawks in a week where they're switching around starting quarterbacks. But Seattle doesn't play well on the road and the 49ers need this game to keep their miniscule playoff hopes alive.

CHARGERS (-7) over Chiefs
Consider last week's disappointing loss a fluke. You're getting excellent value with this line. The Chiefs are without their starting QB, San Diego is a very strong home team, and the strength of the SD defense is in its ability to stop the run. I feel good about this one - the Chargers should be able to get back to their December winning ways.

Dolphins (+6) over JETS
This is going to go one of two ways: The Jets storm out with a vengeance, hungry to beat the Phins into the ground to forget about the embarrassment the Patriots bestowed upon them. OR - the Jets are mentally scarred from last week's game and don't believe in themselves as much as they did two weeks ago. Rex Ryan had this team believing THEY were the team to beat in the NFL. That was dandy til Belicheck decided to bitch-slap the thought out of their head. I'm going with the latter.

Broncos (-5.5) over CARDINALS
This Cardinals team is completely jacked up. They have a guy starting this week named John Skelton. He'd be a practice squad player on most teams (and I'm not even joking when I say that). The Broncos have fired their coach and maybe that'll get them excited to play football again. Either way, the Cardinals are a mess and can't be trusted.

BEARS (+3) over Patriots
I'm going with Chicago only because they play well at home and maybe the Pats will come out flat coming off last week's big win. But really, this isn't a game I'd bet.

Eagles (-3.5) over COWBOYS
This one scares me a little.  If the Eagles were -3, I'd feel better but that half point may end up being what gives Dallas the cover.  The Eagles could certainly blow out the Cowboys, but I think this game will be closer than we all hope.  Dallas has played very well after the firing of Wade Phillips and this team will be geared up to face their division rival at home in Primetime.  It may sound silly to say this, but this game may come down to who wins the opening coin toss.  If Dallas wins the toss, and is able to put some points on the board on the opening drive, I think it will go a long way for their confidence and overall tone of the game.  If Philly wins the toss, scores easily on a big play during the first drive (like they've made a habit of doing) it could be curtains for dem Cowboys.

TEXANS (+3) over Ravens
Another tough game to pick a side.  We'll go with the Texans for a few reasons:  they're back at home on Monday Night Football after playing 4 of their last 6 games on the road; the Ravens are still hurting from a very physical loss to the Steelers; and Houston has had 10 days off to rest and prepare for this game.

Enjoy the games everybody!

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