Friday, November 27, 2009

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall - Week 12

Hope everyone had a safe and happy holiday with their families yesterday!

The Shark's Thanksgiving paraly went off at 3-0 so luckily you got in on it and made a little extra dough for Holiday Season.

Thirsty for more?  Week 12 picks coming right up!

TEXANS (+3.5) over Colts
It’s tough to do this, but I’m actually going to bet against the Colts. The Texans always seem to play the Colts really tight and are in need of a win after a disappointing loss to the Titans on Monday night. Don’t forget, the Texans were a Kris Brown missed field goal away from going into overtime with the Colts just a few weeks ago in Indy.

BENGALS (-14) over Browns
Talk about a big time let down last week. After sweeping the Steelers, Cincinnati loses a heartbreaker against the Raiders. They’re home now and won’t let another terrible team show them up. Look for the Bengals to take out some of last week’s disappointment in aggressive fashion against the Browns.

Redskins (+9) over EAGLES
I really do hope I'm wrong here.  The Birds have the firepower and attacking defense to make some big plays and coast along (much like they did in the first 27-17 meeting a month ago).  I just have a feeling that this will be uncomfortably close for much of the game.  As inept as the Redskins are in the management department, they actually have a solid defense that doesn't get anywhere near the credit it deserves.

BILLS (+3.5) over Dolphins
Another game I just have a hunch about. While they have played well, the Dolphins are due for a let down against an inferior opponent. A division matchup on the road might be just the recipe for that to happen. Factor in that Buffalo, NY is calling for possible snow showers Friday and Saturday night, and the warm weather Dolphins might be the one needing the points.

Seahawks (-3) over RAMS
Kyle Boller is starting for the Rams this week. Could he provide a spark? Sure he could. But it’s far more likely he’ll play like Kyle Boller and play horribly. The Rams pass defense is banged up as well, so look for Hasselbeck and company to air it out in this one. Oh, and look out – the only good player on Rams, Steven Jackson, has missed practice all this week with a sore back…

Buccaneers (+13) over FALCONS
I like what I’ve seen so far from new starting QB Josh Freeman. He’s got a long way to go, but he’s played about as well as you could expect for a rookie on a terrible squad. The Falcons are not the team they were last year – Michael Turner is banged up right now and Matt Ryan's season has been very up and down so far. Look for the Bucs offense to take advantage of Atlanta’s porous defense. They’re ranked 29th in the league against the pass and 24th against the run.

JETS (-3) over Panthers
The Jets own the leagues 3rd best defense against the pass and Jake Delhomme loves to force the ball. That means turnover-city folks. I think this will be a relatively low scoring game. The Jets will try and pound the ball on the ground against a Panthers defense that gives up over 130 rushing yards per game.

49ERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
The 49ers have had a rollercoaster of a season but I think they’re the smart pick here. I’m just not a fan of betting on mediocre teams on cross country trips, and the Jaguars are just that. The 49ers aren’t the most talented team, but they play hard for their coach every single week. Jacksonville has won their last 3 games, but in unimpressive fashion. In those games, they’ve won by a total of 8 points combined. I like San Fran here in a game that nobody cares about.

Chiefs (+14) over Chargers
The Chiefs are coming off a huge win against the defending champs but might've used up the gas in the tank in the process. I still think two touchdowns in a division game is too much to lay though. Take the points and hope the Chiefs have enough pride to keep it within 10.

VIKINGS (-11) over BEARS
The Bears have been downright dreadful. Jay Cutler has had no idea what he’s doing behind center this year. Minnesota has not only been a well-oiled machine firing on all cylinders, but they’re at home. I can’t say I’m thrilled about laying double digit points in a division game, but I’m guessing Cutler will do his best to make me feel better.

Cardinals (+3) over Titans
This matchup pits two teams who have been playing really good football the last few weeks. Of the two, I think Tennessee is playing a little over their head and will lose outright. As long as Kurt Warner starts, (and as of this posting, he’s supposed to) Arizona should be able to pull this out.

Steelers (pk) over BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh has had Baltimore’s number and I don’t think things will change here. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play after suffering a concussion last week. The Steelers always seem to come out twice as tough after a loss and they will be even more amped up after losing last week to lowly Kansas City. Don’t buy in to the Ravens too much – they’re a slightly above average football team. The defense is living off the name it made for itself in years past, but is nowhere near as good.

Patriots (+3) over SAINTS
In the biggest regular season game of the year, I like the Patriots to win outright. The Saints are going to lose eventually and I think this is the spot it will happen. If there is a team that can be as explosive offensively and rival the New Orleans passing attack, it is New England. The Saints have gotten behind early in games against inferior opponents this season, but it has been masked by the fact they pick up steam and can score in bunches. Getting in the hole early against a team as tough as the Patriots could get them in trouble here.

Enjoy the games everybody!

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