Sunday, April 25, 2010

Fantasy Update: Not Time to Panic

By TWW friend Mike R.
With two weeks down in the MLB season and many Fantasy Managers are acting like the crazed Steve Buscemi-type in an action movie, freaking out with their fingers on the Self Destruct Button. My opening thought to you all is (in my best Nic Cage)… “You can’t do that, it’s too dangerous… You have to slow down first!”

There are going to be guys that look as if they won’t live up to their ADP (Average Draft Position) and a lot more that will overproduce comparative to where he was drafted or even picked up off the WW (Waiver Wire). That’s why we’re here to guide you all through the highs and lows that is Fantasy Baseball.

Let’s take a ride on the reading rainbow shall we?
(All stats current as of Friday, April 23 2010)
The first two weeks of fantasy baseball has shown us a few things already. One of them being that a manager can find value throughout the draft and especially through FA pickups. Top picks in fantasy usually aren’t the top ranked players at this point in the game and sometimes it takes a bit more time (and patience) than initially expected.

For instance, ADP for ESPN.com Fantasy Baseball leagues compared to current standing show as:

Albert Pujols: ADP of 1.1 currently 6th
Hanley Ramirez: ADP of 2.4 currently 98th
Alex Rodriguez: ADP of 3.4 currently 64th 
Ryan Braun: ADP of 4.9 currently 11th
Chase Utley: ADP of 5.9 currently 4th


And that is just the top 5 picks of the 2010 draft year. Don’t even get me started on Prince Fielder who’s currently ranked as the 35th overall First Basemen. Now that's as close to the definition of under performance as you're gonna get.

But do you really expect ARod to be anywhere near 64th in a month or two?  Of course not.  You have to play it cool.

So what are you gonna do when your top picks still aren't performing mid-May?  Are you gonna unload your whole clubhouse and risk it all?  Nope -- you're gonna be like a little Fonzie.  You're gonna play it cool.


Top players to date in 2010

Player
Pos.
ADP
Rank
Avg Points
Comments
Matt Kemp
OF
8.8
1
12.95
.333 with 15 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI and 2 SB
Nelson Cruz
OF
60.2
2
12.24
.333 with 10 R, 7 HR, 16 RBI and 3 SB
Vernon Wells
OF
170
3
11.62
.364 with 14 R, 7 HR, 12 RBI and 1 SB
Chase Utley
2B
5.9
4
10.38
.347 with 15 R, 6 HR, 14 RBI and 0 SB
Carl Crawford
OF
11
5
9.81
.340 with 11 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI and 6 SB
Albert Pujols
1B
1.1
6
9.44
.321 with 11 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI and 0 SB
Jose Guillen
OF
260
7
9.2
.368 with 12 R, 5 HR, 10 RBI and 1 SB
Adam Wainwright
P
42.4
8
8.84
3-0 with 22 K, 1.50 ERA and .75 WHIP
Tim Lincecum
P
8.7
9
8.77
3-0 with 24 K, 0.90 ERA and .80 WHIP
Shin-Soo Choo
OF
74.7
10
8.66
.318 with 10 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI and 3 SB

Keep an eye on...

Justin Duchscherer, SP Oakland A's- Somehow available in over 80% of ESPN leagues. May have lost last year to injury, but he was nasty the year before and is picking up where he left off. How soon people seem to forget.

Cameron Maybin, OF Florida Marlins - Available in almost 60% of leagues. Batting leadoff now and hitting for average. Making great contributions to runs and steals.

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