Saturday, November 20, 2010

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall: Week 11 NFL Spread Picks

Feast your beady lil eyes on the handiwork of Jocelyn Carrington.  You may remember her from such previous TheWizWit masterpieces as: Black Roy Halladay and Ice Gold Samuel Dalembert .  She was kind enough to whip us up an official portrait of The Shark himself.  Before yall flood the ole inbox with requests, we're in the early stages of mass-producing those buttons.  Like tens of thousands worth.  You can wear them to work, school, the supermarket, during sexy-time, dinner...literally anytime.  If Max Jean Gilles can sling mousepads for $21 a pop, you'll buy buttons from us right?  Right???

The Shark managed to recover from a disastrous Week 9 and turn in a positive performance of 8-6 for last week.  That brings the yearly total to 76-62-6 with seven weeks to go.

Strap in and pull out your rent money; this is where we pay for your loved ones' Christmas gifts.

DOLPHINS (-1) over Bears
Well we got this one wrong on Twitter last night. Don't fret - with bye weeks over, there are even more games to bet on.

Raiders (+7.5) over STEELERS
We have entered bizzaro world. Considering it's Week 11, who would've thought the Raider franchise would instill enough confidence in football fans to bet on them? The Raiders won last year's meeting as 14.5 point underdogs and the Steelers are suffering from injuries to some key players. I think the Steelers will win the game, but giving more than a touchdown is just too much.

Texans (+7) over JETS
The Texans have screwed me over quite a bit this year. Considering I haven't had a good read on Houston at all this year, I'll understand if you don't believe this time. But I do believe they'll keep things close against the Jets. New York isn't really over-powering anyone right now. The last time they beat a team by more than 7, you have to go back to Week 5. Houston still has the offense to make this interesting, and they are in an absolute must-win situation.

Ravens (-10) over PANTHERS
The Panthers are just God awful and no one can really feel good betting on them. They're starting Brian St. Pierre this week. Nobody even knows who that guy is. Their best two running backs are injured and their coach can't wait to be fired. Just take the Ravens and assume they'll take out some of their aggression on Carolina after losing on a last second play in Week 10.

Redskins (+7) over TITANS
Holy shit, what wasn't crammed up the Redskins' collective buttholes last week? It will be a long time before an Eagle fan has that much fun watching a regular season game. But for this week, I like the Redskins to keep the game respectable. They absolutely have to show some pride and come out aggressive against the Titans. McNabb should be able to rebound and have a solid game against a very suspect Tennessee pass defense. It's entirely possible the Titans aren't even going to take the Redskins seriously. Not doing so may very well bite them in the ass.  Lots of butt-talk this week.  Maybe I'll keep it up.

COWBOYS (-7) over Lions
I might be foolish to jump on the Cowboys betting bandwagon, but the team just seems more inspired now that Wade Phillips is gone. Neither of the Cowboys wins have come at home, so I'd imagine they'd want to treat their fans to a convincing victory. The Lions tend to keep things close, but I like Dallas' offense against the Detroit defense.

VIKINGS (+3) over Packers
Sneaky pick alert! At face value, the Vikings have the following working against themselves: they're not better than the Packers, they hate their coach, they just lost to the Bears, and Brett Favre loves to throw interceptions. Even with all that, we're going the other way. It's finally obvious this will be Favre's last season. He's already played Green Bay several times, but you're kidding yourself if you think Favre won't be playing with some added passion to go out a winner against his former team. Here are some stats to consider also: Vikings are 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 home games. The underdog in this matchup is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings. I'm fully expecting Minnesota to win this game outright and prolong their season for one more week.

Bills (+6) over BENGALS
If you haven't noticed by now, I think the Bengals are a bunch of wretched shits.  They're consistently overvalued week in and week out, and it pisses me off.  I wonder how long it will be before the Bengals realize they need to get rid of Carson Palmer and blow the whole thing up.  Anyway, take the Bills.  They suck too, but they aren't quite as bad as their 1-8 record indicates.

Browns (+1.5) over JAGUARS
Like the Bengals, I have a great deal of unnecessary hatred for the Jaguars. I don't even remember why anymore, but I'll continue that trend. Besides, Peyton Hillis is the shit and has a fan page nick-naming him "The Great White Buffalo".

Cardinals (+8) over CHIEFS
The Chiefs haven't played well in their last two games. Eight points is just too much to give away. Jamaal Charles is going to have a big fantasy week, but I just don't see them pulling away to the point where Arizona won't be able to hang around.

Seahawks (+12) over SAINTS
Let's be honest, the Saints haven't played well enough this year to be giving anyone 12 points. I just don't have any faith in them. Over the last couple years, the Saints have had difficulty covering double-digit spreads, and I expect that to continue.

Falcons (-3) over RAMS
Let me caution you - I would not be surprised if the Rams pulled the upset here. The Falcons are a good team and they're certainly better than the up-and-coming Rams. Temper your expectations though - the Rams play very well at home, have covered the spread in 7 of 9 games this year, and covered the spread in 5 of the last 8 games against Atlanta. You should probably just stay away altogether.

49ERS (-3) over Buccaneers
I'm smitten by the Niners in this matchup. Tampa Bay does not travel well to the West coast. They've always been that way. The 49ers are energized with Troy Smith quarterbacking the team and have seemingly picked up their game when playing opponents with superior records.

Colts (+4) over PATRIOTS
You have to like Peyton Manning getting points. The Colts have won the last two and historically have done an excellent job at covering the spread against Tom Brady led Patriot teams.  I'm actually looking for an outright win from Indy in this spot.

EAGLES (-3) over Giants
I'm kind of shocked this line is only 3. I fully expected the line to be doubled when the spread was released. Everyone watching Monday night's game was left in complete amazement of the Eagles offense. When Vick is on the field, the Eagles operate at an extreme level of precision and confidence. The Giants' offense is good and will certainly test the Eagle defense, but it may not matter considering their sieve of an offensive line. This is the most important game of the season thus far with first place in the NFC East on the line.  I just can't see the Eagles losing. The only thing that scares me is the fact the Giants defense has knocked 5 different QB's out of games. Five injured QB's in nine games!  That's nuckin futs. Vick has less than a 50% chance of making it out of this game healthy if those trends continue. Let's pretend that's not a possibility. Instead, let's be blissfully ignorant as we laugh and cheer at the inevitable Manningface of Confusion and Dopiness. Eagles win 30-23.

CHARGERS (-10) over Broncos
Ten points is a lot to give to a team that won by 20 the previous week. While I personally wouldn't bother betting this game, I'm still going to side with the Chargers. As I've said before, the Chargers are a different team at home. They're also getting back one of their big play receivers in Malcolm Floyd. If that's not enough, the line just looks a little funky to me. I have a feeling Vegas thinks the Chargers will win in a blow out and, therefore, offering the Broncos at an attractive 10 points.

Good luck and enjoy the games!

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