Friday, October 8, 2010

Dolla Dolla Bills Yall: Week 5 NFL Spread Picks

You may have not known this, but the Shark is also a huge baseball fan.  There's some completely unfounded rumors swirling this hat was made with yours truly in mind.  Some say this cap is an abomination, others think it's kinda fresh.  Understand: there's a very fine line between cool and corny.  Not everyone has the ability to see this line, and many have cloudy judgment between the two.  Let's just say I probably wouldn't wear it, but I bet Donovan McNabb would rock the shit out of this hat.

Anywho, we went 11-3(!) last week against the spread, making us 37-22-3 overall.  I can't wait till Al Pacino seeks out my genius, whisks me away, and gives me an extravagant penthouse to live in where all I do is "pick winners and lift weights". 

Enough commentary. Hit the jump to get to this week's selections.  I'm going to warn you now - this is one of the tougher weeks so far this season. 

Broncos (+7) over RAVENS
I don't have much of a read on this one, so we'll take the points. The Ravens may be a little drained after winning an extremely tough one on the road in Pittsburgh last week. They could even find themselves looking ahead to next week's matchup against the Patriots.

BILLS (+1) over Jaguars
And here is where the Bills get their first win of the season. The Jaguars just blew their load beating Peyton Manning last week.  Now they must travel to what may be one of the most dreadful places in the United States. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a let-down game to me.

COLTS (-7) over Chiefs
Peyton Manning is a vengeful man. After losing a game, all he wants to do is pummel his next opponent.  He's like that chubby second grade bully who sits on top of the dork who always has those sweet oatmeal raisin cookies. Sadly, that dork is the poor Kansas City Chiefs. Expect the Chiefs to have their cookies stolen and settle back into the losing ways they're accustomed to.

LIONS (-3) over Rams
Could the Bills AND Lions both win games on the same weekend? The odds on that alone have to be crazy. I may sound nuts, but I think it's going to happen. It's a good spot for them at home against a Ram team who's a little too full of confidence. Detroit isn't as bad as their winless record shows. They've been involved in close games all year and have an offense that can put up points in bunches.

BROWNS (+3) over Falcons
Here's a prime "the line is telling me something" example. This line is Vegas screaming at you to please take the Falcons. I'll be honest, I have a hard time believing the Browns will cover myself, but the line is too fishy not to bet on the home dog. If it's any consolation, the Browns have actually fared better than you think against the spread over their last 10 games dating back to last year.

BENGALS (-7) over Buccaneers
Tampa has one the worst defenses in the league against the run and get absolutely no pressure on the QB in passing situations (4 sacks total on the year). I'm a Carson Palmer hater, but given time to throw the ball, he should have a decent game. Cincy's running game will keep the Bucs off balance in a game the Bengals win big.

Bears (+3) over PANTHERS
I flipped flopped here as I was writing this explanation, but I'm settling on da Bears. There isn't much the Panthers do well, but if you had to pick their strongest area of the game, it would be running the football. Coincidently, the Bears have been fantastic against the run. Jimmy Clausen will be forced to win this game in the air; I just don't see that happening. With Cutler being out, I'd expect the Chicago defense to step up big-time to compensate.

REDSKINS (+3) over Packers
I feel sorry for anyone who picked up Brandon Jackson in fantasy and thought he was going to produce the same way Ryan Grant did. The fact is, Brandon Jackson isn't that great of a football player and should only be on the field in specific situations. It's going to be tough for the Packers to keep winning without an effective running game to keep the clock moving. Look for Ryan Torain to have a big day for the Skins - Mike Shanahan LOVES him and the Packers are giving up 5.2 yards per carry.

TEXANS (-3) over Giants
Don't let the Giants fool you based on their win against formerly unbeaten Chicago last week - they suck. They're a sloppy and undisciplined football team. Houston is playing very well right now.

CARDINALS (+7) over Saints
Even with a guy you never heard of (Max Hall) getting the start over Derek Anderson, I think the Cardinals are in a good spot here. The Saints have not played well at all this season. Sure, they're 3-1, but listen to the teams they've beaten: Vikings, 49ers, and Panthers. They won those 3 games by a combined total of 10 points. Das cra-zay. The Cardinals are coming off a bad loss in San Diego, but have had success at home which is where they'll be this week. They'll get up for this game and be a handful.

RAIDERS (+6.5) over Chargers
I'm going with Oakland because the Chargers seem to always screw bettors over when they're on the road. Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert will probably run for a 100 yards a piece, but I'm going to overlook that. Bruce Gradkowski is inexplicably a leader for this dysfunctional franchise run by vampires.

COWBOYS (-7) over Titans
This is a game I'd probably just stay away from. We'll take Dallas coming off they bye with a supposed commitment to getting Felix Jones more involved .

Eagles (+3.5) over 49ers
A lot of people are going against the Birds this week. It blows me away how many people are siding with an 0-4 team. The only explanation is Kevin Kolb's negative 38 rating on the confidence scale. Andy Reid has always done a good job of getting his teams ready to play the week after a loss. They always seem to bounce back strong, and I don't think this week will be any different. Just pray McCoy plays - God help us if we're forced to count on Mike Bell's 1.7 yards per carry. Some good news for Kevin Kolb - the Niners are in bottom half of the league in pass defense and are tied for third worst in the NFL in sacks. Defensively, Frank Gore is going to give Eagles problems, but I think they can rattle Alex Smith and force him into some mistakes. Birds win it outright 24-20.

Vikings (+4) over JETS
The Vikes are coming off a bye and will get an added jolt of excitement from the addition of Randy Moss. Minnesota has had a long time to prepare for this game and just really cannot afford to drop to 1-3. Plus, Mark Sanchez has to make some mistakes eventually, right?

/Brett Favre "purple helmet" dick joke.

Good luck and enjoy the games!

[pic via our friends at Crossing Broad and @Utley4God]

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